AIE: the barrage burst. Scenarios for restoration or for floods and catastrophes? With post-scriptum

{IPN analysis} The serious rupture in the Alliance for European Integration (AEI), which was predicted by many clear-sighted persons, occurred. For the younger generations of readers, it is a paraphrasing of the slogan about the imminence of the revolution of 1917 used in the Soviet period. The real reasons for denouncing the agreement on the formation of the AEI by one of the member parties will be discussed and guessed for a long period ahead and this will remain a useful and necessary exercise. But more useful is to identify possible scenarios concerning the evolution of the crisis situation, in the hope that the political players will be able to choose soon the variants that would prevent the transfer of altercations from the political to the social arena and the change of the country’s European course. [The reason of the reasons] The politicians, the political analysts and society in general are treating differently the reasons for the denouncement of the AEI agreement by Prime Minister Vlad Filat’s party and, probably, each of these sides is right their way. Each has their own partial truth. Every political player accuses the others of causing this political crisis that seems unprecedented. But there is also a common reason, a kind of reason of reasons that is spread by everyone, but not everyone realizes and recognizes it fully. This reason is called “the reforms are not implemented in Moldova”. Reforms are done in no areas, no matter which ruling party manages these areas and regardless of the status of the institution - autonomous or not. It is corruption and unjust justice that prejudice the efforts, hopes and budgets. Such a situation appeared after three years under a government that claims to be democratic and that promised to rule better than the previous governments and to bring the country closer to the European Union with its value and property. But the people continue to live badly or even worse than earlier. We understand that ‘something is putrid in the state of Denmark’. The incident in the Domneasca Forest showed that the state institutions do not function how they should in a democracy or work worse than until the pretended ‘reform’, or work only for certain circles and for themselves. We witness such a situation two years before the completion of the AEI’s mandate. We understand that there is not much time left, but some is yet left. We understand that if something extraordinary is not done, something unusual that would take the government and society out of routine, the chances of improving life in the country or of Europeanization outside will be lost for many decades ahead, if not centuries. Why shouldn’t we admit that the gesture of Premier Filat and his party is namely that ‘cold shower’ that is needed by the whole political class to wake up and regain the ability to assess their work self-critically? In such a case, we should admit that it is a courageous gesture, maybe the only possible one, but also a very risky one, or maybe very dangerous for society if they do not succeed, and for sure fatal for the political fate of its authors, if they suffer defeat. But somebody may possibly propose something more efficient and less dangerous. At the current stage, the greatest danger for everyone is to go on like until now. [Notions, state of affairs, and solutions] What happened actually from legal of technical viewpoints? The Liberal Democratic Party (PLDM) announced that it withdrew from the AEI agreement, which it blames for the fact that things and the reforms are stagnant. The party proposed renegotiating the agreement and re-forming the ruling alliance. The same ruling alliance, which it does not abandon. It does not withdraw its ministers and the prime minister from the Government, but the maintenance of the Government means the maintenance of the alliance and the parliamentary majority, and of the country’s development course. It’s true that the Government asks for the confirmation of the vote of confidence by the parliamentary majority, based on the new AEI agreement. Thus, the ball is in the field of the Democratic Party (PDM) and of the Liberal Party (PL). They must say if they accept or not the PLDM’s offer or must make other offers based on which they can go on in the same format, but with beneficial effects for society, or they can assume the decision of the dismemberment of the alliance, with all the internal and external consequences. Therefore, there are a lot of possible solutions at the moment. A part of them can be found in the IPN analysis “AEI: struggle of positions with predictable and unpredictable consequences or similarity between politics and hunting”{that was published on February 4, 2013}, with or without adjustments: 1. The conflict cannot be solved by maintaining the status quo of the AEI and its components based on the current agreement on the formation of the alliance, even if one of the components, the PL, urges the PLDM to renounce its decision as it is ‘immature’. Usually, the decisions of such a level cannot be renounced, including because they can be coordinated with Moldova’s foreign envelopment partners, if not before making them public at least afterward. If believing the communiqués from the Government, such a conclusion derives from the announcements that Vlad Filat had telephone conversations with European Commissioner Stefan Fule and Polish Premier Donald Tusk. Also, the visit of the Foreign Ministers of the UK, Sweden and Poland, scheduled for February 18, wasn’t cancelled and the Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is also expected to visit Moldova in the middle of next week, as planned. 2. The PDM and PL will delegate representatives to work on a common commission for negotiating a new AEI agreement, by the example of the PLDM, and will accept certain demands formulated by the Lib-Dems and will put forward their own conditions. A vote of confidence will be given to this or another Government that will have to ensure better governance and will propel the internal reforms and the European integration course. 3. The PDM and PL will agree to renegotiate the agreement and the posts distributed earlier among the component parties. This is a long-term process that can have unpredictable results. The PDM and PL will want to take a part of the posts held by the PLDM, including of Prime Minister, or will prevent Vlad Filat from occupying it. The PLDM will insist on being given 9 of the 17 seats in the Cabinet, according to the number of seats in Parliament, including of Prime Minister. The executive posts at the autonomous, nongovernmental institutions, including the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Audit Office, will become a bone of contention. There will be a danger of early elections and of the European course being changed. 4. The PDM and PL will not accept to renegotiate the agreement and will not agree to give a vote of confidence to the Government. They will withdraw their ministers from the current executive, which will become a minority one. There will be again a danger of early elections and of the European course being changed. 5. The AEI will break up following the non-communication between the components or the belligerent communication. There will be again a danger of early elections and of the European course being changed. [Post-scriptum] The phrase ‘and catastrophes’ in the title was added when the current analysis was almost ready. In the morning of February 15, when the MPs were to start examining the commission’s report on the tragic hunting incident in the Domneasca Forest, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the National Anticorruption Center launched a series of massive inspections, including before video cameras, in the Government Building and at the State Main Tax Inspectorate, over a criminal case started last September. The observers, including the TV channel that broadcast the action live, approved of the law enforcement bodies’ decision to fight corruption, but expressed their concern that those steps might be taken by order, following the disagreements between the ruling political parties. Surely, the corrupt functionaries must be penalized, but why now and why in such a way? asked the observers. In this context, the list of possible solutions to the current political crisis should be now extended with one more solution – the ruling political players will launch a comprehensive political, and not only political war that can have the effects of a national catastrophe... [Valeriu Vasilica, IPN]