A new election might fragment ruling alliance, foreign experts

Lyndon Allin, IREX expert for Moldova, and Mathew Rojanski, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, consider progress to date may be undermined, and future potential may not be realized, if the Alliance for European Integration (AEI) once again fails to elect a president, Info-Prim Neo reports In an article published on the international political analyses website www.worldpoliticsreview.com, the two experts say there is a serious risk of a backlash from Moldovans, who understandably feel that they already voted for change and real results in three general elections over the past two years. A new election would raise the possibility that the coalition might fragment, allowing the Communists to form a new government with one of the AEI's constituent parties. The authors are sure that the West has a critical role to play in encouraging and enabling the AEI's leadership to pursue an agreement with at least two additional deputies in parliament so that it can select a president and avoid another round of elections. Moldovans themselves must agree on the compromise necessary to achieve a 61-vote supermajority, but the West can provide clear incentives for this government to finally end the cycle of elections and political maneuvering. Lyndon Allin and Mathew Rojanski say stabilizing the current government with a permanent president at its head will also empower Chisinau to pursue European-oriented reforms that impose short-term costs in exchange for long-term benefits. According to the two experts, in a stabilized political environment, Chisinau must follow through on promises of domestic political reforms that have been frustrated by two years of perpetual campaigning and demonstrate that it can be a much-needed success story for the EU's Eastern Partnership program. For its part, Brussels should deliver on its own promises of a Moldova-EU association agreement, a more-liberal visa regime for Moldovan labor migrants and reduced barriers to trade, particularly for Moldovan wine and other agricultural products. Although history, geography and economic reality put Europe at the center of Moldova's Western reorientation, Washington can also provide recognition of Chisinau's progress, the authors stressed.