This year Moldova will witness a rise in the agricultural output, of about 7%, it is said in the magazine “Economic Outlook”, of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives “Viitorul”, released on June 2. This sums up the main socioeconomic events and trends of 2015-2016, IPN reports.
Expert Viorel Chivriga said increases in production will be witnessed both in the vegetal sector and the animal-breeding sector. “In the animal-breeding sector, the number of animals remains stable. Even if feeble, but changes are also seen in the quality of products. In the vegetal sector, which is much wider, things are not so definite. Anyway, the balance of trade in the exports of agricultural products, if the weather conditions are at least slightly favorable, will be positive,” he stated.
According to the expert, this year, as last year, agriculture will be marked by problems that haven’t been solved for many years – the insufficient subsidization by the state of agricultural producers and overdue subsidies. On the other hand, the utilization of the means of projects implemented in Moldova with international financing is inappropriate and the resources allocated for developing the agricultural sector and to producers are much lower than in other countries.
In the industrial sector, the growth forecast for 2016 is modest, of 3.5%. Exports will decline by 9%, while imports by 5%. Moldovan producers’ access to the traditional markets will remain limited and the conquering of the European market will remain a priority.
The experts of “Viitorul” anticipate an economic growth of 0.5% - 1% and consider that 2016 will be a year when the economic situation will stabilize. As to the currency market, there are now no inflationist factors generated by the real economy. The exchange rate is the only risk element for inflationist processes. If the National Bank of Moldova manages to keep the exchange rate of the leu stable and a reasonable depreciation of not more than 10%, the inflation will not give reasons for concern.
