Sergiu Ostaf: Statistical methods help us avoid impact on vote

The director of the Resource Center for Human Rights (CREDI) Sergiu Ostaf suggests using statistics methods in electoral processes for identifying eventual electoral frauds. Five statistical methods are broadly used in the West and also in the Eastern area to identify voting anomalies and some of them can be applied in Moldova, Sergiu Ostaf stated in a news conference at IPN.

The expert explained that a voting anomaly is a rigging risk that is identified and is investigated to determine the causes. A voting anomaly is a deviation from voting behavior. Exemplifying the anomalies that are often witnessed in elections, including in the Republic of Moldova, for which statistical investigation methods should be applied, Sergiu Ostaf mentioned the organized bringing of voters to polling places, voter corruption and vote buying.

Sergiu Ostaf said the significant deviations on the distribution of votes also point to the presence of anomalies. For example, an anomaly can be considered the coincidence of the election results of a particular contestant at a number of polling places.

According to the CREDO director, the statistical methods applied to analyze anomalies can help identify the beneficiaries of such anomalies in regions or at particular polling places.

If particular anomalies repeat at a number of polling places during several consecutive elections, this is a sign that an investigation should be carried out to find out why this happens. “The statistical methods help us understand the aggregate phenomena and to assess their impact on the election outcome,” stated Sergiu Ostaf.

He noted the institution he heads prepared a broad analysis of the deviations and anomalies recorded in the parliamentary elections of 2014 and the presidential elections of 2016 and will make a comparative analysis after the February 24 parliamentary elections.

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