In the long term, there are no solutions to the Transnistrian conflict, but in the short term Moldova can be transformed democratically so that it becomes attractive to all its people, strengthening Transnistrians’ confidence in this state entity, historian Octavian Tacu said in the public debate “What are the chances of unfreezing the frozen Nistru conflict?” that was staged by IPN News Agency and Radio Moldova.

Octavian Tacu said what is called the frozen Nistru conflict is rather a conflict of frozen solutions that regrettably cannot be found now in Chisinau because the current government acts in collusion with the so-called Socialist opposition. “In the long run, the rivalry between the big geopolitical blocs does not offer long-term solutions for resolving the dispute, but this does not mean that we should not protect ourselves from the major incursions that occur in the internal affairs of Moldova with the support of the secret services of Transnistria,” said the historian.

Presenting the conflict in retrospect, Octavian Tacu said this dispute is seen as an episode of the Russian-Romanian conflictology that has lasted since 1791, when the Russian Empire reached the Nistru and started to build the Tiraspol fortress that became a benchmark in the imperial strategies of the Russian Federation in relation to the Balkans. The events of 1992 are a follow-up to what was there in 1812 and 1940 because it is the same scenario that was implemented with the aim of building a bridge head of influence on the Balkans, the Romanian Countries, Constantinople, etc.

“We saw in 1924 how a Romanian mass was created or rather managed on the Nistru. This was called the Autonomous Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic that in a very short historical context became the center of attraction of the Soviet policies aimed at modeling the Moldovan identify built on August 2, 1940 by the merger with Bessarabia. From historical viewpoint, the merger of these entities created a situation of incompatibility and could last until the Soviet Union exerted full control over this territory. Amid the national renaissance and emergence of forces that longed for the proclamation of independence, at the end of the 1990s we witnessed Moscow’s concrete steps aimed at building this separatist regime that supported the aggression war of the Russian Federation, which now militarily occupies the eastern part of the Republic of Moldova,” stated the historian.

He also said that similar situations existed and continue to exist where the interests of the great powers persist and it is thus hard to resolve such disputes. In this connection, the leader of “The Right” Ana Gutu said today this conflict suits the Transnistrian administration and Moldovan politicians who have business interests in the region and everyone knows about the contraband that is smuggled through Transnistria. She suggested that a border should be set up on the Nistru, while the people who want to live on the right bank of the river should be offered sources of livelihood.

Octavian Tacu noted Ana Gutu’s solution has one advantage and two disadvantages. The disadvantages are related to the abandonment of a compact mass of Romanians who live on the left side of the Nistru, which would be the ‘syndrome of the abandonment of Bessarabia” of 1940, when Romania abandoned Bessarabia. On the other hand, neither the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova allows abandoning this territory. The advantage resides in the securing of what’s left of Moldova, offering the chance of democratizing and modernizing the Republic of Moldova, according to the model of Cyprus, where a part chose to integrate into the EU, while the other part chose to remain under Turkish control. Respectively, the Transnistrian region is under Russia’s control.

Commenting on the proposals for federalizing Moldova as a solution to the conflict, the historian said there are two possibilities – one proposed by the Party of Socialists, which was formulated at the suggestion of Moscow that aims to gain full control over Moldova, and another one where there will be a bigger confrontation between the great powers. In general yet, the federalization solutions are extremely problematic for Moldova’s future.

The public debate “What are the chances of unfreezing the frozen Nistru conflict?” is the 71st installment of the series of debates “Developing political culture by public debates” that are organized with support from the Hanns Seidel Foundation of Germany.